IFX Markets, Inc., a global provider of Foreign Exchange to both its retail and institutional clients is please to announce a new technical trading service available to clients.
IFX Markets and The International Financial Review, the world's most authoritative source of real time financial markets commentary and analysis, has teamed up to provide you with a unique combination of commentary, analysis, data and forecasting. The analysts are experienced market professionals who provide you with intelligence you can act on wherever and whenever you need it. Of course, before deciding to participate in Foreign Exchange (FX) trading, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite
Spotanalytics.com is a tremendous source for market news and commentary. For only $49.95 a month, you will gain access to our Premium trading services pages, gaining access to Squawk Box, Orders Boards, Trading Trading Pages and currency-specific forecasting. Premium Access has four main sections of information: Trading Pages, Forex Watch, Currency Briefing Pages and Macro Economic/Central Banks.
Trading Pages:
The Trading Pages section provides in depth technical analysis and commentary on specific currency pairs. Here, the analyst describes what is happening with that specific currency pair and graphically shows the rationale behind their forecast.
|
Technical Significance |
Recommendation |
108.35(M) |
Daily High Jan 15 |
Flat On A Failure |
107.90(M) |
Jan 4 Lo, Jan 16, 25 Highs |
Sell Failure, Buy Break |
107.45(M) |
Daily High Jan 30 |
Sell A Failure |
107.20(M) |
20 Day SMA |
Sell A Failure |
106.68 |
00:20 GMT TUE 05 FEB |
|
105.70(M) |
Daily Low Jan 31 |
Buy A Bounce |
105.00(S) |
Daily Trend Low Jan 23 |
Buy A Bounce, Sell Break |
104.20(M) |
Monthly Low May 05 |
Cover On A Bounce |
101.30(S) |
Dble Btm 30/11 & 23/12 99 |
Take Profit, Sell Break |
[Strategy:Sell@107.45] Choppy consolidation continues above the January trend low at 105.00, with the topside capped at 107.90. The range yesterday was a tight 106.45/107.10, leaving the daily studies still flat lining at mid levels, while the hourlies are in neutral territory. Our strategy is to trade the range, or breaks on the hourlies. (ams) [22:37 GMT]
Forex Watch:
This section of the Spotanalytics website provides access to a market Squawkbox where analysts disseminate some of the “chatter” amongst the institutions. This information can be invaluable when assessing short term trade flow for a particular currency pair.
Tokyo, February 5. EUR/JPY has quieted considerably compared to some of the moves seen recently. Rather than trading three big figures a day, the cross is only trading two. The situation is still potentially volatile but dealers seem to be less focused on stocks as has been the case recently, and the market has steadied to an extent. The range overnight was 157.94-158.71. The range in Tokyo prior was 157.63-158.38. Technically, EUR/JPY remains well within the parameters of the Ichimoku kijun and tenkan lines which have defined the range in this cross since January 24. The kijun line has edged down a bit to 159.31 and the tenkan has moved up a bit to 156.15 today. EUR/JPY currently trades quietly at 158.19-24. --Haruya Ida
[00:03 EUR/GBP TECHS: Longs Still In Play For A 0.7545 Break More]
Sydney February 5. Andrew M. Spencer
[00:02 NEWS: FinMin Nukaga - Reiterates G7 To Discuss Mkt Woes, Oil]
Tokyo, February 5. Over DowJones. Early comments from the Japanese FinMin following the morning cabinet meeting. He reiterates that the G7 will discuss current market woes, high crude oil prices and macro-economic policies when the group meets on February 8-9. He emphasizes the importance of international cooperation in dealing with the subprime problem. He adds that China, South Korea, Russia and Indonesia will join the dinner planned for February 8. --Haruya Ida
Furthermore, subscribers have access to the Order Boards. This section of the website provides access to institutional market orders as well- allowing IFX Markets’ self-traders and money managers access to critical information about short term trading trends. Obviously, knowing where large institutions like banks and hedge funds are placing their trades can help retail traders assess their overall trading strategies and market conditions.
[GBP/USD]
Bids are tipped at 1.9700. RH
[13:32 GMT February 4th] [USD/CHF]
A Swiss bank has reportedly gone long at 1.0900, targeting 1.1225.
[10:58 GMT February 4th] [EUR/CHF]
Offers into 1.6160"s back in sight. Better sized supply tipped into 1.6185/6200 region.
[10:52 GMT February 4th] [EUR/GBP]
Bids are tipped at 0.7480. RH
[09:26 GMT February 4th] [USD/CHF]
Dutch and other assorted buyers noted into the 70"s to spark bounce. More offers into 1.0905 (early European highs) with UK Clearer selling expected into the 20"s (21 the intraday high). MFS
[08:37 GMT February 4th] [AUD/USD]
Offers are touted at 0.9080, and pre-0.9100, inclusive of option-related interest (exotic option exposure at 0.9100). RH
Finally in this section of the Premium Access site, subscribers have access to the IFR Regional Market- providing insight regarding specific news and forecasts for a particular trading period (i.e. Eurozone).
Market Briefs
- Eurozone Dec PPI 0.1% m/m, 4.3% y/y vs prev 0.8/4.1% & 0.1/4.3 exp
- Eurozone Feb SENTIX 4.3 vs prev 8.2 & 4.3 exp
- UK Jan Construction Sector PMI 53.9 vs prev 56.0. 55.0 Exp
- ECB Liebscher: ECB will do everything to ensure stability
- Riksbank Nyberg: Swedish economy indicates hike
- Kuwait C/Bank: inflation could not be tamed through monetary policy alone
- News: G7 to discuss forex, which of particular interest concerning euro
[Looking Ahead - Economic Data]
- 13:30 Dec Factory Orders (mkt 2.3%m/m, prev 1.5%m/m)
- 13:30 Dec Factory Orders Ex Tran (mkt 1.9%m/m, prev 1.4%m/m)
[Currency Summaries]
[EUR/USD] The early Asian foray into the 1.4790"s was soon rejected and this
left the topside in view and spot gradually crept higher. Into European trading
and short-term buyers emerged to support the pair to counter medium-term sales.
Ahead of the Euro Zone data and spot hit fresh intraday highs but offers into
the 1.4850 mark capped the rally. 1.4848 marks the intraday highs with option
related offers linked to the 1.4850 strikes due to mature at the NY cut at 15:00
GMT. With the move higher halted the pair dipped back to 1.4800
support as positions were pared into the SENTIX data. Sentiment was always
likely to fall but EZ PPI data matched expectations to leave the price holding
close to the 1.4825 mark, which also notes an estimated EUR 200/250Mln expiry.
Currency Briefing Pages:
Each briefing page serves as a summation page for all trading news and market action regarding a specific currency pair. The briefing pages can be an effective reference point for any trader before beginning one’s personal trading session.
EUR/USD opened New York around 1.4825, attempted to break lower but just couldn't find the oomph, with a dearth of US data other than US factory orders on the menu. Cross flows, particularly EUR/JPY responding to fibrillations in US equities, tended to influence price action, as traders await the ECB decision Thursday. The range was 1.4805/45, the close 1.4825, with traders more focused on commodity currencies that exhibited a strong bid tone. US factory orders at 2.3% were a tad below expectations, but were not a factor. Eurozone PPI was as expected at 0.1% which should take a little pressure off the ECB, however it was political developments that caught the market's eye. Italy's senate speaker Marini was unable to generate support to form a new government, and passed the problem back to President Napolitano. French lawmakers will vote on Thursday whether or not to accept the Lisbon Treaty, a diluted version of the European Constitution that Dutch and French voters rejected in 2005. Lawmakers passed an amended French constitution today that opens up the vote on Thursday, hundreds of protesters rallied outside Parliament
Economics/Central Banks Pages:
These pages offer macro views on various world economic regions- allowing traders to better understand when and how fundamental economic data effects various currency pairs.
Boston, March 7.
[Bottom Line] The economy lost 63k jobs in February and 22k in January as the unemployment rate eased to 4.8% from 4.9% between January and February. In this past week, we had a busy calendar of Fed speakers. On next week s Fed scheduled we have Kroszner on risk management. The Fed increased Monday's TAF auction to $50 bln from $30 bln in an effort to fund banks that won't fund each other.
Next week's focus is Retail Sales out on Thursday and CPI on Friday. There are no data points relating to housing.
[Wholesale Trade (Jan)] We expect wholesale inventories to see a modest rise of 0.3% in January. This will follow a 1.1% gain in December. We are on the low end of our survey range. The inventories-to-sales ratio rose to a three-month high. We could see big contributions from petroleum sales. Wholesale sales fell 0.7% in December. We expect a 0.2% rise in January.
[Trade Balance (Jan)] We see a slightly wider trade deficit by 1.3% to $59.5 bln. Import prices soared in January by 1.7% bolstered by higher petroleum import prices. We expect a 1.5% increase in total imports. Export prices also rose sharply in January and so we expect a 1.0% gain. Net of petroleum we estimate a $26.4 bln deficit slightly smaller than that of December. Around 57% of the deficit will come from petroleum. That is the largest contribution since October 1997.
Look for back-to-back record deficits with Mexico and OPEC. The deficit with China should continue to ease from October's record until March when it traditionally starts to move higher again.
[Jobless Claims (Mar 8)] IFR looks for a 9k rise to 360k in the number of first time unemployment insurance filers. In the prior week, claims fell 24k to 351k. The moving average dropped for the fourth straight week to 359.50k. Next week's initial claims release corresponds with the March payroll survey week. Thus far, the data has not signaled a recession instead it shows a softening labor market.
Continuing claims saw a third straight weekly rise, up 29k to 2.831 mln in the latest week. It is the highest level since October 2005. In February, the unemployment rate fell to 4.8% from 4.9%. We expect claims to stay around 2.820 mln.
[Retail Sales (Feb)] Discounted stores like Wal-Mart, Costco and BJ's reported better-than-expected sales in February. This should help boost Retail Sales. Weekly ICSC chain stores sales rose 0.2% in February. We expect a 0.2% advance in Retail Sales in February from a 0.3% gain in January. In February, we saw higher energy prices and rising food prices. Sales of autos were slightly down in February. We expect ex-auto retail sales to rise 0.2%.
[Import Prices (Feb)] Import prices should rise 0.8% in February moderating from its sharp gain of 1.1% in January which pushed the year-ago rate to 13.7%, the highest on record (since 1989). Ex fuels, (the preferred measure of core imported inflation) prices should be up 0.42% for the month and 3.9% for the year, the highest in five years.
[Business Inventories (Jan) ] IFR expects a 0.3% rise in business inventories in January given a 0.3% increase in wholesale inventories and a decline of 0.2% in retail inventories. The 0.3% gain in business inventories will follow a 0.6% rise in December. Business sales fell 0.5% in December. The inventories-to-sales ratio rose to 1.256 from 1.246, a three month high.
[Consumer Price (Feb)] IFR anticipates CPI to advance by 0.3% in February following a 0.4% gain in January. The index rose on higher energy cost (cause of two-thirds of the rise) and increasing food prices making the three-month annualized rate an inflationary 6.6% rate. CPI Core rose 0.3%. We expects core to increase by 0.2%. Real Earnings were down by 0.5%, robbing consumers of purchasing power. Gasoline prices eased in February; however, food price gains should negate the drop.
Boston, March 7. Payrolls fell by 63k in February, the second straight monthly drop. January's -17k was revised lower to -22k. December's payroll number was revised down from 82k to 41k. The 3-month moving average slowed to -15k. This is the lowest level in payrolls since July 2003. The unemployment rate fell to 4.8% from 4.9% in January. In December, the rate was 5.0%. Average hourly earning rose by a moderate 0.3%. Work week hours remained at 33.7.
Goods producing industry declined by 89k jobs in February, the biggest decline in a year. Manufacturing jobs fell by 52k. That is the 20th straight monthly decline. Hiring in the construction sector fell by 39k and in total by 4.9% from March 2007.
Service producing jobs grew 26k, the weakest rise since October 2005. Financial jobs declined for the seventh straight month, down by 12k. Transportation and trade jobs lost 39k, the most since March 2003. There were negative wholesale (-7) and retail jobs (-34k) growth. Private sector jobs on the whole fell 12k, first decline since the -122k print in March 2003. Government jobs rose 38k vs. a 4k rise in January.
The household unemployment rate fell to 4.812% in February from 4.925%. Consensus called for a rise to 5.0% given the rise in jobless claims. According to the household survey the pool of available workers fell by 2.3%.
This report should heighten recession fears and increase expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. Two straight monthly declines suggests that we are already in a recession or at the start of one. However, back-to-back declines were seen in March 2003 when payrolls declined for three months. (Myra Dsouza) /kl
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